Company Logo

• 목록
• 답변
• 글쓰기
• 게시판 리스트 옵션
  • 수정
  • 삭제

Let the loopy Americans with their fantasies of AGI in a number of years race ahead and knock themselves out, and China will stroll alongside, and scoop up the results, and scale it all out value-effectively and outcompete any Western AGI-related stuff (ie. Scale CEO Alexandr Wang says the Scaling phase of AI has ended, despite the fact that AI has "genuinely hit a wall" by way of pre-training, but there continues to be progress in AI with evals climbing and models getting smarter as a result of put up-coaching and test-time compute, and we have entered the Innovating phase where reasoning and different breakthroughs will lead to superintelligence in 6 years or much less. Databricks CEO Ali Ghodsi says "it’s pretty clear" that the AI scaling laws have hit a wall as a result of they are logarithmic and though compute has elevated by 100 million times in the past 10 years, it could only enhance by 1000x in the following decade.

Yann LeCun now says his estimate for human-degree AI is that it will be possible inside 5-10 years. What do you assume the company’s arrival means for different AI companies who now have a new, probably more efficient competitor? Richard Ngo continues to think about AGIs as an AGI for a given time interval - a ‘one minute AGI’ can outperform one minute of a human, with the real craziness coming around a 1-month AGI, which he predicts for 6-15 years from now. Richard expects maybe 2-5 years between each of 1-minute, 1-hour, 1-day and 1-month intervals, whereas Daniel Kokotajlo points out that these periods ought to shrink as you move up. In the event you do have the 1-day AGI, then that appears prefer it ought to drastically speed up your path to the 1-month one. The answer to ‘what do you do if you get AGI a yr before they do’ is, presumably, construct ASI a yr earlier than they do, plausibly earlier than they get AGI in any respect, and then if everybody doesn’t die and you retain control over the scenario (big ifs!) you use that for no matter you choose?

Scores will doubtless improve over time, in all probability quite rapidly. The AIs are still nicely behind human degree over prolonged intervals on ML tasks, nevertheless it takes 4 hours for the lines to cross, and even at the end they still score a considerable share of what people score. The tasks in RE-Bench purpose to cover a large variety of skills required for AI R&D and enable apples-to-apples comparisons between humans and AI brokers, whereas also being possible for human consultants given ≤8 hours and affordable amounts of compute. Robin Hanson says some time in the subsequent century the financial system will start doubling every month and most people will lose their jobs so we should always… Dr. Oz, future cabinet member, says the massive opportunity with AI in drugs comes from its honesty, in distinction to human docs and the ‘illness industrial complex’ who're incentivized to not inform the reality. OpenAI SVP of Research Mark Chen outright says there is no wall, the GPT-style scaling is doing positive in addition to o1-fashion strategies. They only aren’t doing it. They aren’t dumping the cash into it, and other issues, like chips and Taiwan and demographics, are the massive considerations which have the main focus from the highest of the federal government, and no one is serious about sticking their necks out for wacky things like ‘spending a billion dollars on a single coaching run’ with out specific enthusiastic endorsement from the very top.

We tried out DeepSeek. Garrison Lovely, who wrote the OP Gwern is commenting upon, thinks all of this checks out. Consequently, the most effective performing methodology for allocating 32 hours of time differs between human consultants - who do best with a small variety of longer makes an attempt - and AI brokers - which benefit from a bigger variety of unbiased brief attempts in parallel. Would you consider that a short or a long time? Haven’t had time to observe this but I count on it to be attention-grabbing. DeepSeek's revolutionary techniques, value-efficient solutions and optimization strategies have had an undeniable effect on the AI panorama. The unveiling of DeepSeek Ai Chat’s low-value AI solution has had a profound effect on international inventory markets. Both are constructed on DeepSeek’s upgraded Mixture-of-Experts method, first used in DeepSeekMoE. More broad requests concerning the Chinese leadership are met with Beijing’s standard line. The current export controls possible will play a extra significant role in hampering the subsequent part of the company’s mannequin development. Specifically, since DeepSeek permits businesses or AI researchers to access its models without paying a lot API fees, it could drive down the costs of AI providers, doubtlessly forcing the closed-source AI firms to scale back cost or present different more superior features to keep prospects.

In case you adored this information and also you would like to acquire more information about Free DeepSeek v3 (www.reddit.com) generously check out our own website.